Bill Gates leads global call to accept realities of a warming planet

We must learn to live with the rising seas

By Michael Le Page

It is not enough that we try to limit further global warming – we must also do far more to ensure we survive it. That’s the message from a coalition of major global figures, including former UN head Ban Ki-moon and billionaire Bill Gates.

The Global Commission on Adaptation, which is being launched today, says that the impact of global warming is already being felt much sooner and more powerfully than expected. To keep reducing global poverty and maintain economic growth, societies must do much more, much faster, to adapt.

“Adaptation action is not only the right action to do, it is the smart thing. We need to make this case more aggressively,” says Ban, who along with Gates is one of 28 commissioners heading up the new initiative. “The costs of adapting are less than the cost of doing business as usual. And the benefits many times larger.”

Climate adaptation is not just about special projects, says Kristalina Georgieva, CEO of the World Bank and another of the commissioners. Everyone should think about resilience to climate change when making decisions: from governments and business leaders to farmers deciding what to grow and the general public when buying a home.

Significant opportunity

“A very significant opportunity for adaptation comes from mainstreaming resilience in the normal investments we make,” says Georgieva. “It doesn’t have to be a more expensive investment, it has to be done with risk in mind.”

For example, she describes how some farmers in Bangladesh have switched to raising ducks instead chickens. During floods, chickens drown but ducks swim.

Bangladesh has also succeeded in greatly reducing deaths from cyclones by improving warning systems and building local shelters. In 1970 half a million people died in one storm; in 2007 fewer than 5000 died when another strong storm struck.

Adaptation is especially important to help the poorest, who are being hit hardest. Around 100 million people could fall back into extreme poverty by 2030 because of climate change.

“The urgency around adaptation cannot be overstated,” says Patrick Verkooijen, CEO of the Global Centre for Adaptation, who will help run the commission.

All those involved stressed the need for cutting emissions to limit – or mitigate – further warming. But we have to adapt as well.

Live with the consequences

“We are the last generation that can mitigate climate change effectively. We are the first generation that has to live with its consequences,” says Georgieva. “That leads to a very obvious conclusion: we have to mitigate and adapt at the same time.”

The launch of a major adaptation initiative just a week after a major UN report on what it would take to limit warming to 1.5°C might be seen by some as an acknowledgement of defeat. But scientists have always made it clear we need to adapt even if warming is limited to 1.5°C or 2°C by 2100. Based on current policies we are heading for more than 3°C.

“For quite some time there has been that sense that if we opt to adapt that means we are accepting defeat in the fight against climate change,” Georgieva says. “But the straightforward truth here is that we already are experiencing the consequences of the changing climate. It’s not defeat, it’s reality that we face.”

That means giving equal priority to adaptation. Half of the money the World Bank lends for climate-related projects – $20.5 billion in the last fiscal year – is now devoted to adaptation, she says.

It is possible to combine adaptation with efforts to limit climate change, say the commissioners. For instance, solar panels keep homes supplied with electricity if a disaster brings down power lines.

While the commission paints a rosy picture of the benefits of adaptation, in reality it will involve some hard choices, such as retreating from low-lying coastal areas.

“Some places, like lower Manhattan, will clearly be defended with walls and other structures. But will billions be spent to protect, say, Howard Beach, a low-lying working class neighbourhood in Queens? I don’t think so,” says Jeff Goodell, author of the book The Waters Will Come.

“In most places, retreat is inevitable. And it will be driven by simple economics. The hard truth is, adaptation to quickly rising seas is a luxury that few can afford,” he says.